I'm working for a major European cargo airline and demand for air freight is recovering far quicker than forcast so some must be doing well.
In my opinion, if governments had made cutbacks at the time it was obviously needed, in 2008-9 like the private sector had to, the whole crisis would be almost over by now.
What was the point in borrowing huge sums of money just to delay things by a year or two?

and a 3 day. Not as bad as it looks. Pete

depends how you look at it. still a drop of 30%. if your happy to have 50 baht to one GBP as the norm then it's o.k. to me it's 30% below what i expect.
miked

What was the point in borrowing huge sums of money just to delay things by a year or two

support of U.K. banks. without that support the banking system would have collapsed.
miked

but i think we could be looking at several years

Of course this will take years!
Do you think a huge crisis like this will be ok again in 2 months?
Anyway i wouldn't have thought in my wildest dreams that there will be a recovery so soon.

@miked,

I've seen the comments about house prices dropping in the UK - it seems to be accepted dogma that prices will go down a la 1996 but I just don't buy the arguments. People looking at the afordability of houses forget that the housing of immigrants has largely replacxed the first-time-buyer in the UK. Buy-to-letters have never had yields as high as they are now, courtesy of the ultra loose policy at the BOE. The killer stat for me is though, remarkably, that housing is already below long-term-trend. Since 1960 housing in the UK has appreciated at an annualised compound rate of about 3.5%. Since 1980, which includes the current situation and the mid-90's negative equity story, the compound rate is 2.9%. Demographically, UK housing is very well supported, and value wise, certainly with respect to rents, housing isn't far off par. I would expect, in spite of likely continuing softness, not to see housing drop much except in more challenged areas. I (and this is only personal opinion and analysis) anticipate it to strengthen as soon as interest rates rise, as longer term savers move to lock in low rates and try to make sure that any inflation happens in their property asset, rather than to their rental costs. Just my 4 pence worth, but for the housing armageddon pundits to be right, then I could only see that happening of there is a huge drop in rents too, which might happen in the event of really major rises in unemployment, but not without.

(and this is only personal opinion and analysis) anticipate it to strengthen as soon as interest rates


imo as soon as interest rates rise house price falls will increase. with the planned cuts, high unemployment and higher interest rates the auctions will be full. i,m very active within the U.K. property market but at the moment i,m sitting on cash and waiting.
miked

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... omics.html

worth having a look at the above link. normally wouldn't bother as the article is in the Daily Telegraph but the report is from Capital-Economics.
miked

They qualify the article considerably, anticipating a severe divergence from treasury forecasts, and to the downside. Depends how much credence you give to that kind of forecasting really. I don't give too much.

So far, the doom and gloom merchants have announced the death of the housing market nearly hourly since mid 2007 and special cases aside have been roundly wrong. 1996 happened because of reposessions. Job losses - which will happen - won't lead to reposessions on the same scale, because of the change in rules regarding mortgage interest payments, government support for the banks and the demographic underpinning meaning that demand to be housed will continue to outstrip supply.

I have 2 properties in the UK - it isn't a lot I agree, but I have never made more money from them than I am now. If the market is so desparate, why aren't I queuing up to sell? I can only imagine that if you are very active you are hoping to pick up stock at a lower price, no? Well, good luck, but do you suppose you are the only one? What is the point at which you pull the trigger - when the price goes down, or when your financing costs escalate thereby cutting your yield? It's clear which one you favour, but I'm not by any means convinced that you'll get your wish.

Now, the stock market on the other hand...
... we could really see some fireworks there 2nd half. But that's a different story.

It's just about ready to break the 50.0 barrier on the buy side. Probably this week. It sits at 49.07 buy and 50.70 on the sell side. Pete

Just gone past 50. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Midnight (ish) Euroland. Xe.com now displaying mid rate 100.00 GBP = 5,028.47 THB

Now the resistance that was building up at just below 50 is broken, I think we can be optimistic of a fairly quick couple of baht appreciation. Targetting, as I suggested before, roughly 55 on the back of UK interest rate expectations firming.

Hope your right. The £ - $ has increased a fair bit but that increase is only pulling the baht higher by very small amounts.

Yes KZ the rates going up but with bank charges and fees whch i wasnt charged for 6 months ago it doesnt make any difference i will be standing still
and the cost of living isnt going down either

Sargeant.

I thought ATM fees were Bht150 per transaction and with the Stg/Bht rate improving from 45 to 50 ( 10%+) surely there is an improvement ?

If you need to reduce bank costs even more then there is a recent thread on this also.

Well, Greavsie, I am looking at my account and as recently as 25 May I was debited at 45.3 at the K-Bank ATM in HH Market Village, so getting over 50 is already something of an improvement. Today's spot rate is over 51.

I'm only looking at the technicals in reality and once the 'big figure' 50 was broken (going upwards), then the next area on the charts which shows any kind of price congestion is between 53 or so and about 55.50 (Sep 09 to the biggish drop around beginning of Feb this year). To go through that from where we are now in one fell swoop would be asking a lot, but there isn't much in the way to stop sterling trading up to that level. Lets face it, the UK's stubborn inflation (do I hear an echo...), and firming of interest rate expectations (though I don't expect an actual move for some time) - and add to that the worries over Euroland Sovereign debt - has clearly turned the pound around - The trend (http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB) over the last 2 and a half month or so is pretty strong. When you look at the price action around 50, the pound has crashed through it, and through the congestion at 49. Hardly even paused for breath.

So something is happening.