Predictions for Thailand 2008

[buksida]

Been thinking about this and pondering on what may happen after the elections, here are my predictions for next year:

PPP will win the election by majority vote from all those Issaners that have been given incentives by other means (usually payouts).

First quarter: Samak will change the constitution back to the 97 one cutting out the military, enabling multiple terms as PM and the allowance to own businesses. He will also clear the banned TRT politicians enabling them to return to his party making a huge PPP/TRT conglomeration funded by Thaksin from overseas.

Second quarter: Thaksin will return and all charges against him will be dropped. More restrictions on foreign business and investment put in place to appease the rural majority that voted for them.

Third quarter: Military uprising and more anti Thaksin protests on the streets of Bangkok while tourism and the economy crumbles even further and nothing is done to improve it. Violence in the south escalates and bombings start to occur in the capital.

Fourth quarter: Another coup and civil war - the military will use force this time.

I know its exaggeration and doom and gloom but it is a possible scenario, Thailand is extremely divided at the moment. What are your thoughts for Thailand in 2008?
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Luctor et Emergo

[seasidesurfer]

I assume this posting is a complete wind up for people with connections to Issan.
My wife is from Issan but was educated at a Bangkok University yet still voted PPP because she believes they are the only party who will try and bring the region out of the poverty trap.
Buksida. You sound just like the Bangkok business man who assumes that people who do not vote for his interests are stupid.
Whatever the vote, nothing will change. The Army and big Business will stay in control and the King will do his best for the people.

[buksida]

Not at all, its a simple fact most people from Issan will vote for the populist party and their promises and most in Bangkok and South of it wont.

Don't take it personally, another fact is that Thailand is divided and the post was intended to spawn a discussion on that division.
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Luctor et Emergo

[seasidesurfer]

Hi Buksida.
You are so right about the divisions within Thailand and for that reason alone it will not become a true democracy until these divisions are smoothed out.
My wife feels the way forward is education and spends a good part of her hard earned income educating her brothers children because he is too poor to do it himself.
The eldest boy has just gained a place at Tamasat Uni next year but knows without my wifes sponsership he would be washing cars at the local gas station.
It is a sad indictment of Thailands education system that poor people do not have an equal shot at life.

[Jockey]

I agree with Buksida, though the timing may be sooner rather than later. We are sitting on a possible powder keg. As far as my minimum knowledge of Thai history is concerned, the people in power over the last century have been backed by either the military or the police. Many high police officials were shamed and their shady empires were broken up earlier this year by the military junta. Old scores need settled. The King generally glues the agitation together. What happens if there is no glue?

Not sure how the Ferangs will fare in a civil war scenario. Talk about it down the pub or build barrackades to protect property at places such as Palm Hills.

Tis' the season to be merry!

[Sabai Jai]

Predictions a bit on the gloomy side....

I think it's too early to call, time for plenty of chicanery before results are out! and then lots of arguing about them.

Whatever the regional differences within Thailand, and I do know the depth of feeling in Issarn, there is a very strong Thai national Identity and in my experience the oriental mind usually finds ways that avoid direct or head on conflict.

Lets hope so anyway!

SJ

[norm]

I think that people tend to make the prediction heavy on the doom and gloom as it is much more exciting than "things will be right mate". Guess I fall somewhere in between the doom and gloom and bed of roses.

I think the goverment will keep making weird rules and getting everyone one pissed off. While the farangs anyhow. They are not going to make foreign ownership any easier than it is now. But I doubt if they take anyones property away either. I think the best we can hope for is a longer term lease like 50 or 99 years. That would pick things up again in the housing market.

[Wanderlust]

2008 obviously hinges on the election result, but I don't think it is going to be as clear cut or decisive as many seem to think; a lot of people on here go on about how strong the support for Thaksin still is, and thus by implication the PPP, but where is this perception coming from? I haven't seen many opinion polls but they are notoriously unreliable in situations such as this anyway, and I am pretty certain a lot of Thai people will say one thing and do another if questioned about their vote. I also imagine there are a lot of undecideds out there, who may well be persuaded by small issues, such as the actual person they are voting for rather than the party they represent. I think we could well see only a very small majority or possibly even a minority government, which would mean anything to be done would need a broad consensus to go through. Could be good or bad news and likely to be both at the same time! I predict another election in about 2 years...

[buksida]

Heres a good article that confirms your thoughts WL:

'Third force' parties to determine polls

Many people simply don't know who to vote for (or don't care) so are choosing some of the smaller parties. Many of those I spoke to after the weekends polling had voted for these lesser known candidates and parties.

I still think PPP will get the most votes as those in the northeast were blinded by how great Thaksin was, which in fairness he may have been to them but he sure as shafted the rest of Thailand.

seasidesurfer, totally agree with your thoughts on education, its the only thing that will bring Thailand out of this mess. However, like TRT before them, its unlikely that this is a top priority for PPP who will prefer to "help the poor" by putting them further into debt.
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Luctor et Emergo

[sargeant]

I will post my predictions but am short of time at the moment but i just wanted to agree with WL it could very well be the smaller partys that hold the balance.
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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand

[James61]

I'm guessing elections will be fixed just in case.

[James61]

khunt haxsin will be back and he shall have his revenge against all the thais who turned their back on him and said "taxsin get out".
His hatred for westerners is at an all time high also after they abused him in london about the 3000+ killings etc.
He'll be back all judges paid and all forgiven.
Nevermind, it's a small country in a big world and this is a very short space in time so no point in being dissapointed at the silliness of the uneducated, brainwashed and numb.

[sandman67]

As Mrs Sandman says.....same same (but different?)

more insane diktats like the alcohol bans

more visa rule changes arbitrarily applied and interpreted by the soi 102 lot

more MIB inaction on things that matter whilst chasing their tails about loud music or bargirls smoking grass (????)

more traffic in HH using the main road as a racetrack or carpark....

another set of lying thieving hypocrites in control because people here vote for personality before policy....

....or am I just being cynical?
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If I can't smoke and swear I'm f****d!
"To sin by silence makes cowards of men"

[sargeant]

……………………………..PREDICTIONS 20008
1. This will be Hua Hins lowest high season for years.
2. The crime rate will increase (building, hotel workers out of work no money and lots of time on their hands.
3. This rigged election won’t change jack crap no matter who wins (to many permutations and all of them not good).
4. The next govt won’t give a toss about farangs and things could get worse.
5. House/Land prices will drop.
6. The number of legal actions against the property sector will keep on growing.
7. The farang property sector will migrate to Vietnam/Cambodia.
8. The subprime lending problem will knock on for at least 2 years 2010 before High season means high again.
9. Vietnam/Cambodia will take over and Hua Hin will revert to a huge sleepy fishing town.
10. I probably won’t be around to see it.

Lastly education if it started here tomorrow it would be 20 years before it would show results.
The UK and EU Have education and that education means that council notices are sent in 9 different languages they have Race relations acts, Sex discrimination acts, Asylum laws and are up to their ears in educated lawyers to abuse the above laws. The educated Brits/EUs that voted this crap in don’t have a single law protecting them. Educated I can’t stop larfing.
Hallelujah that Thailand is uneducated.

Lastly as an Issaan farmer waiting for my daughter the apple of my eye my pride and joy the love of my life to send me some money for my rice bowl from down Bintabaht way under a drunken old fat farang.
I am struggling with voting for a party that puts farangs comfort first. I think I will stick with one that says it will give me a standard of living so my daughter can come home even if they are all liars.
If that doesn’t work I will buy a lottery ticket.
As for educating me to vote for a farang friendly govt dream on Gunga Din.

This post will probably stir a hornet’s nest but MAYBE just Maybe some farangs will stop and think.

Thinking the epitomy and cornerstone of education.

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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand

[ozuncle]

1. Whichever party wins (I think PPP ) there will be major objections from all the other parties. So much so that a govt will not be formed and another election will be held later in 2008. Until then the military will remain in power.
There will be a fair bit of voiolent protesting (riots) and the military will intervene.

2.The baht will remain strong against Western currencies.

3 Property prices (Not just HH) will be stable.

4.Violence will increase (Same as everywhere)

5.Corruption wont change.

6.No lightening of restrictions on farang.

Happy Xmas and New Year to all.


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You only live once.