are things back to normal?

Mack111 · Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:33 am Post subject: are things back to normal?

Hi Guy’s

I take it now, that all the uproar of foreigners being investigated if they were buying houses / land is all over?

I know it’s still not entirely legal but you never seem to hear anything about nowadays. Was just curious if it’s back to business as normal.

Do you think the Thai economy lost any income throughout the whole saga that seemed to be on the go a few months back?

Assuming things are back to normal do you think someone of some importance thought, hold on a minuet were going to lose cash here if we don’t do something?

Guess your thought pleae!

cheers

Guess · Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:52 am Post subject:

This is no easy to answer.

I was just getting to the point where normal was within my comprehension and then everything shifted.

As for house and land is concerned, all the law enforcement/changes that were implemented are still in force. Property though is still changing hands within the farang market place.

As for government is concerned. There was an amazing lack of it in the first place but I have yet to see the mass exodus. That will happen if they do not address the growth in lawlessnees.
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All that the South has ever desired is that the Union of fore fathers should be preserved.

PAINTER01 · Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:36 am Post subject:

I (my company) should be registering land in HH in the next few days, no indication yet from my BKK lawyer that any thing detrimental should occur.

I'll let you know how it goes.

Painter

johnnyk · Guru Joined: 02 Sep 2005 Posts: 893

Guess · Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 3:11 am Post subject: Re: are things back to normal?

johnnyk · Guru Joined: 02 Sep 2005 Posts: 893

guess,
I should have said the 10 or 20 mil that may be spent by falang on property purchases (200 properties @ $100K each=$20 mil, so more likely $40 million). Not terribly significant in the context of the overall economy.

I'm sure that falangs do bring in at least $460 mil (if that's what you mean) overall but the vast bulk of that IMO would be from standard package tour vacationers. About 12 million visitors a year so probably more than $460 mil as that would only be about $38 each!

CIA fact book quoted the Thai GNP at about $525 billion, for year 2001 I think, so I'm extrapolating to the region of $700 billion. That would be the above-ground economy of course.

Hublet · Specialist Joined: 14 Jun 2006 Posts: 122 Location: China

Guess, I think the exodus you spoke of may be underway.

There are a lot of people stressed about the new visa - rules (and the one million baht in the bank bit for businesses). Just take a look at the property market. In the Phuket-Gazette there are 476 business-opportunities for sale and in the "The Nation" there are about 500 for sale. Without searching really hard there are over one hundred businesses up for sale in Hua Hin alone. I think this speaks for itself.

Guess · Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:23 am Post subject:

johnnyk · Guru Joined: 02 Sep 2005 Posts: 893

Yes, my first estimate of an $800 billion GDP was off base. Official estimates are that tourism represents about 15% of the Thai economy, so roughly $90-100 billion. Most of the investment I think is likely from large falang companies like Hilton etc.

I think an expat community would survive but perhaps not as numerous, although there are many expats who live apart from the falang sector of the economy, i.e. upcountry with spouses etc.

I suspect there are also substantial numbers who come on packages and don't venture much outside their hotel except on some kind of prepaid outing. They don't leave their $ in smaller falang establishments such as yours or All In HuaHin.

Just curious, but do you have any notions about the make up of your customer base? What % expats, what % indie travellers and what % package tour holidayers?

Burger · Ace Joined: 19 Apr 2004 Posts: 1113 Location: Hua Hin

Mack111