2,000,000 may be out of work by xmas in UK

[norm]

This was on CNN this morning. UK economy 60 year low. How does this impact you in LOS?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/30/economy.alistairdarling

[Georgy Porgy]

May be some early retirements and more moves to Thailand?
Prayers that we are already sorted and pleased to have left the rat race.

[Super Joe]

Yeah Norm, its a really big one, will be a good few years until it pickes up.
Some of the effects are Brits putting off holidays here due to funds. Also Brits planning on selling up or re-mortgaging to buy homes here will be put on hold for many.
House sellers in the UK are getting 'gazundered' by the buyers. Just happened to a mate, when at contract exchange stage the buyer says the house has lost X amount since we started this process, drop the price or I won't buy. What can the seller do? He would only be able to sell it again at the current value which this buyer is now offering him anyway.

One report:
Worst UK house prices fall for 18 years:
The property market faces a full-scale collapse with house prices tumbling by more than 10% a year for the first time since 1990.

The average price has fallen by 10.5% over the past 12 months, wiping about £30,000 off the value of a typical London home, according to the Nationwide building society.
The last time that house price falls were measured in double digits was in the autumn of 1990 during the depths of the last recession, when it took six years for values to recover.

The figures confirm there is still no sign of an easing of the credit crunch almost a year on from the collapse of Northern Rock. A leading City forecaster is now predicting a full-blown recession for the British economy next year

SJ

[norm]

SJ

Not much consolation but it appaears the recession is going to be world wide. Even Japan is facing a large number of developer/builders going bankrupt with unfinished projects.

A bit further south, Australia and New Zealand are having a housing bubble burst on them and house prices dropping. So I guess for the next few years it will be a buyers market.

With all the problems coming up I'm quite happy to be in LOS where you know you can always afford a meal.

[caller]

Its certainly a very confusing time here in the UK. I'm puzzled by Darlings interview, which appears in some respects to conflict with the more 'upbeat' message his boss has been putting out. I think that there is an awful lot of in-fighting going on in this cabinet, as alluded by Darling.

Whilst he's had to pick up as treasurer where Brown left off, he has been a bit of a fool. U turns on taxation when his plans were shown to have affected the poorest in the UK and ill-advised comments about scrapping stamp duty on house sales that has affected the market. I know, my place is on the market and the agents have said that everyone is sitting waiting for more info about this.

I have had an offer on my place 40k less than the asking price and that had dropped by 10k from when first put up for sale and it started 15k less than what I could have asked for and got last year! I estimate that makes 3 new buyers in my cul-de-sac now in negative equity, including my new neighbours.

But everything is relative and that means offers I make will have the same starting point - take it or leave it, its a buyers market.

The sooner Browns Govt. get back after there break and start revealing their oft mentioned 'big-plan' to help recovery the better, whether it has any effect is a different matter......

Petrol now down to 1.10 per litre gbp in my area - thats cheaper than when I returned from LOS at the end of April, but still 10p more than when I left the UK a month earlier.
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I know nothing

[margaretcarnes]

What 'U Turn' on tax is that Caller? Certainly no change yet in the base rate 20% tax on the whole of my pension, which I think is one of the problems Labour have (albeit a minor one.)
IMO yes - Labour are losing touch with the voters. And so are the Unions. But we have hit the 2 million unemployed mark before, when there were less migrant workers. Touchy subject I know! But a lot of issues here, and from the Gaurdian article - no detail at all on how the projected 2 million figure is made up.
Details are yet to be announced about plans to tighten up on Incapacity Benefit claimants - although the changes are due next month.
The 20% base rate tax on over 60's means that it is often more cost effective for people to stop work at 60 - even men, who don't get State Pension until 65 at the moment. The Pension Credit system has allowed this anomally to happen.
The Tax Credit incentive is a shambles of incorrect payments, and has, to a large extent, lost it's incentive to get people into work. Many don't claim it because they are afraid of ending up with overpayments.
The Inland Revenue as a whole can't cope. My own appeal on a tax matter went to the Revenues Adjudication in May 2007 - still no decision.
And thats before you even start on house prices!
With respect to people who are now unable to sell at the price they expected - where did the inflated house values come from in the first place? Values increased hugely from about 2000/2001, and now the deflation in prices is being seen as excessive and unfair. Maybe only because home owners were lulled into a false sense of security, and succumbed to extra loans peddled freely by the Banks. On top of that came even more redundancies, and people found that they couldn't get help through Income Support for mortgage payments due to other changes which snuck in unnoticed.
Sorry - its a whole can of worms we have now. Global? Yes. But sadly Brown didn't appear to see it coming.
Impact on Thailands expats? Yes, if people can't sell in the UK it is bound to delay their plans.
Norm has the right philosophy I think - as long as theres enough for a bowl of noodles s.d the rest and be thankful!
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'If'n ya cain't say nuth'n nice, don't say nuth'n at all' Thumper.

[sargeant]

Hi Mags you said
no detail at all on how the projected 2 million figure is made up.

obviously there are 1,999.999 because i am one of them
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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand

[miked]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7590870.stm

this link explains the tax situation.
miked

[margaretcarnes]

Wow thanks for that link Miked. Don't think I'll be spending my £60 in England though - more likely in HH, which will help to screw up the High St boom won't it?!

Sarge - surely you are much more than a mere statistic m'dear? (grovel factor hits new highs following elatation at governments U turn)
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'If'n ya cain't say nuth'n nice, don't say nuth'n at all' Thumper.

[margaretcarnes]

BTW - 'eletation' is a new word meaning excited elephant.
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'If'n ya cain't say nuth'n nice, don't say nuth'n at all' Thumper.

[sargeant]

Thanks for that clarification Mags i did not take any offence i just thought it meant fat old git which fits me perfick
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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand

[margaretcarnes]

Tempted to say 'aah bless' there Sarge but don't want to be seen grovelling anymore! Just surfing around while waiting for more news on Bangkok
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'If'n ya cain't say nuth'n nice, don't say nuth'n at all' Thumper.

[sargeant]

well if you are bored tell me about that 60 quid and will i get it in muppet language even a numpty like me can understand
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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand

[margaretcarnes]

All we need to know about the 60 quid Sarge is -

a) that nice Golden Brown has done a Thatcherite U turn and is apparently refunding me £60 tax this month, after having made one of his greatest economical blunders and incurring the subsequent wrath of the grey vote, and -

b) how many Leo will it buy?
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'If'n ya cain't say nuth'n nice, don't say nuth'n at all' Thumper.

[sargeant]

Mags now i loves you to deaf but am I gonna get it i pays tax as well
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A Greatfull Guest of Thailand